The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made it clear that global net carbon dioxide emissions need to be reduced to zero by mid-century to potentially limit global temperature rise to 1.5°Celsius (C), and stave off the worst impacts of climate change. 

Several countries and jurisdictions have introduced long-term, net-zero carbon reduction goals, including the world’s two largest emitters: the U.S. and China. In fact, in January 2021, the Biden Administration committed to reach carbon neutrality (or net-zero carbon emissions) by 2050, building on the neutrality goals of eleven U.S. states, including California. Meanwhile, last September, China announced its goal to peak emissions by 2030, and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Achieving such targets will require radical transitions in the energy mix and trajectories of both nations, and a series of bold interim milestones and near-term actions. 

Two new reports published by the California-China Climate Institute seek to provide insights into these interim pathways by reviewing the latest deep decarbonization literature for both the U.S. and China, respectively. 

The first, which reviews the decarbonization literature for the U.S., examines five major national studies and two state-level analyses, finding parallels among them. It explores decarbonization options across five pillars of opportunity: 1) Electrification and efficiency; 2) Clean electricity; 3) Low-carbon fuels; 4) Non-carbon dioxide reductions; and 5) Carbon capture, usage, and sequestration (CCUS) and enhanced natural land sinks. It finds several common “no-regrets” strategies such as electrification, efficiency measures, and rapid expansion of renewables like solar and wind, but also significant uncertainties in the technological pathways for difficult-to-abate sectors like industry and transportation. The authors write, “The scale of energy system transformations required over the next decade to meet a mid-century carbon neutrality goal far exceeds current levels of U.S. federal policy ambition.” They recommend several near-term strategies moving forward, including:  

• Aligning economics for businesses and the public to seek cleaner energy;
• Changing institutional structures and governance to foster greener energy investments;
• Enhancing public education and engagement; and
• Providing workforce transition assistance and economic support. 

The second, a review of the literature for China, provides a comparative analysis of ten different pathways toward China’s carbon neutrality goal. Despite significant projected increases in Chinese Gross Domestic Product by 2050 (anticipated 3.5 - 4-fold increase), the projections analyzed suggest either flattening final energy consumption or up to a 30% reduction from today’s levels by 2050, finding, “China’s final energy consumption is likely to peak by 2025 in most 1.5°C compatible scenarios and by 2030 in most 2°C compatible scenarios.” The report identifies myriad pathways toward decarbonization for China, each showing China’s carbon emissions peaking between 2020 and 2030, with the greatest reductions in the subsequent decade. Most of those scenarios compatible with reaching the 1.5°C temperature goal show emissions peaking by 2020, while those compatible with a 2°C scenario show peaking by 2030. The report also describes key decarbonization strategies including: efficiency measures, demand-side reductions, energy reductions in production processes and materials procurement, widespread electrification, and accelerated power sector decarbonization, among others. The analysis also reveals myriad uncertainties, including the pace and scale of fuel transitions, demand projections, policy and institutional changes, and projected technological cost assumptions. The report authors summarize their findings as follows, “all future scenarios envision a rapid peaking followed by a dramatic decline in carbon dioxide emissions starting in 2020 or 2030 - unlike anything seen in recent history for China or any other country in the world.”

Both reports provide insights for a framework supporting coordination between the U.S. and China on emissions reductions targets and goals, as elaborated in the synthesis report, released in May, titled: Getting to Net Zero: U.S. China Framework and Milestones for Carbon Neutrality. 

To learn more, and read the full reports, visit: ccci.berkeley.edu/publications